GREENFIELD — Hancock County’s livestock population could take a significant hit this fall and winter.
Record-setting drought conditions are creating a shortage of corn, soybeans, hay and other livestock feed, the effects of which could have a much greater impact on livestock producers than grain farmers.
“Livestock producers are not directly associated with the drought, but they’re really going to be the ones impacted long term,” explained Roy Ballard, Hancock County Purdue Extension educator.
Crops across the Midwest have been badly damaged by high heat and a severe drought. An expectation for low yields across much of the country’s agriculture hub is sending prices for both corn and beans through the roof.
When the market closed Tuesday, corn was trading over $8 and soybeans over $16.
And this is on top of prices that have already nearly doubled in the last three years, said local hog farmer Tim Lewis.
“We’ve had a hard time breaking even for the last couple of years because of the high cost of feed,” Lewis said.
The Lewis family has been farming hogs for decades. Tim grew up doing it, just as his kids are now. But that could change if feed prices continue to rise.
The Lewises have about 1,000 sows on their farm in the eastern part of the county. Each year, they raise about 20,000 hogs for market. Right now, Lewis said, they’re lucky to profit even $5 per head for those animals.
Livestock producers like Lewis, who sell to distributors, get little say in the price of their animals. So when input costs like feed increase, prices for their product don’t necessarily do the same.
If that cost gets higher, as it is expected to this year, Lewis said they might have to start selling off some of their breeding sows. Already, they’ve started culling the older and thinner sows earlier than normal – the ones that don’t produce as many viable offspring .
“When things are good we keep them around longer,” Lewis explained. “But we’re already getting rid of some of the older ones now. We probably won’t replace those, either.”
It’s not just hog producers in a pinch. Livestock producers across the state, including beef, goats, lamb and poultry, are all in a similar situation.
Many producers, especially those who feed hay like cattle and dairy producers, have already dipped into stocks of winter feed.
“Typically, we don’t have to feed hay until the beginning of October,” said Dave Vansickle, of Fortville’s Vansickle Cattle Co.
The Vansickles run an operation of about 40 cows, which they breed especially to produce show cattle for 4-H and FFA participants.
Those animals are kept in a series of about five pastures around the county. During an average year, those pasture grasses are sufficient to feed the animals from April to October. This year, Vansickle started feeding from his winter supply of hay in June.
“There’s just no value left in the grass,” he said.
The Vansickles normally purchase some hay and combine it with what they grow themselves. This year, they’ll purchase a lot more hay at a much higher cost. Vansickle said quotes on hay bales have already doubled.
“It’s really going to hurt our bottom line,” he said.
The heat and drought are also affecting the health of the animals, reducing their body condition and ability to conceive. Vansickle said he has more open cows than normal – cows that didn’t get pregnant are being inseminated – and it’s directly related to the heat.
The Vansickles are lucky in that they have more flexibility to raise prices to account for the increased cost of their operation. But it will still be a challenge to hang on to all their animals. Open cows will be the first to go, as supporting them through the winter will be expensive.
“My hope is that we won’t have to sell any, but I’m not going to go broke trying to keep them, either,” he said.
Earl and Michael Smith don’t think they will be as lucky. They own Blue River Natural Foods, a dairy farm in eastern Hancock County.
Earl said they, too, have started feeding winter hay to support their 35 milking cows and 45 head of young stock.
Unlike the Vansickles, the Smiths do not get to set prices for their product. Their milk is sold to Organic Valley, which sets the price; companies don’t pay more just because a farmer’s costs increase, Smith said.
“Farmers are always price takers,” Earl Smith said. “They can’t say, ‘I have to have this much for it to survive.’”
Michael, who has taken over the dairy operation, is applying for a low-interest loan to purchase more hay through the Farm Service Agency. If that doesn’t come through, Earl said they will likely have to sell off the animals and give up the trade that has been a family tradition.
“We’ve been on this farm and in this business, 64 years,” he said. “Sixty-four years in the business and we may end up not being in business any more.”
It’s likely that many livestock producers throughout the state will either sell part or all of their herds, which could drive up food prices. In a news release, Purdue Extension agriculture economist Chris Hurt said food prices will remain steady or even lower in the short-term as producers quickly sell off animals, but as supply dwindles, prices will rise.
“Animal producers ultimately do get compensation for the higher feed costs,” Hurt said, “but that comes after a prolonged period of losses that some producers can’t survive.”