Sara Denhart, Madison Courier Kentucky News Desk
Economists are reporting that Jefferson County and Trimble and Carroll counties in Kentucky stand to lose hundreds of jobs and millions of dollars if the Madison-Milton bridge is closed for a year for construction of a new superstructure.
Based on surveys of 40 businesses in the three counties, the economists reported in the study released by the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet and the Indiana Department of Transportation that jobs would be lost with or without ferry service. But they said other steps could be taken to minimize the impacts.
"While the provision of regular ferry services would ameliorate the estimated regional losses relative to an alternative without ferry services, the effect is not expected to be dramatic...," the economists said in the study.
The study said the worst-case scenario is that 816 jobs would be lost in area if ferry service is not provided. However, a ferry service would only save 172 jobs in the worst-case scenario.
The region would also stand to lose $45.3 million to $62.9 million without ferry service. If a ferry service is added, the area's economic losses could be $9.4 million to $9.9 million less.
"Keep in mind these are the losses we would expect if we were only to provide ferry service and nothing else," said John Carr, project manager with Wilbur Smith Associates, the bridge project consultant. "But we are taking steps to reduce impacts even further with robust tourism and regional customer marketing campaigns and other efforts to keep the local economy vibrant."
The tourism and marketing campaigns were ideas proposed for mitigation by the Section 106 parties, who represent historic agencies; local, regional and state governmental groups; and residents.
Other ways to help lessen the blow of the lost resources could include incentives to the contractor for reducing the time the bridge is closed, free ferry services, enhancing the Milton, Ky., and Madison boat and ferry landing areas, and paying for a business workshop on ways to cope with the closure. These ideas were discussed at the last meeting of the Section 106 parties.
Despite the losses to the area, economists estimated job growth related to the bridge construction. A total of 1,382 jobs would be added during the three construction years of 2010, 2011 and 2012.
"Overall there will be a net gain of 865 jobs and $108 million in positive growth to the economy," Carr said in the news release about the economic study.
Those jobs are not guaranteed to be filled by local workers, because the general contractor will be able to hire whatever subcontractors it wants to complete the job.
"We were pleased to learn that the net result of the bridge construction on the regional economy is unquestionably positive," Carr said. "But we certainly recognize the hardship the closure will have on some individuals and businesses."
Even with the losses, local business owners do not expect the negative effects to be permanent, the news release said.
"According to the interviews, the anticipated business losses from the closure are temporary, with a gross majority of these jobs and output expected to return after the bridge is reopened," the report said.
In addition to the analysis, the economists said that none of the information provided by business owners was quantitative and there was no way to ensure the responses were accurate or representative. According to the report, the economists made an effort to scrutinize the results and dismiss any response that seemed illogical, counterintuitive or unsubstantiated.
Kentucky and Indiana will learn in late January whether they have been awarded a federal stimulus grant of $95 million to go toward the $131 million construction project. The states would equally split the remaining $36 million.
The project would involve removing the steel superstructure and building a new span that atop the existing piers. The bridge would be closed to traffic in early 2011 for about a year.
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