The downpour came suddenly, drowning front yards, flooding homes and businesses and turning the intersection of 23rd and Main into a raging river.
In less than an hour, the May 30 torrent dumped 3.7 inches of rain on parts of Ferdinand, overwhelming the town’s stormwater control system and causing an uproar among homeowners and merchants whose property was damaged by the rising water.
Flash floods are not uncommon this time of year. But in coming decades, the region will likely experience more extreme weather, much of which will be attributable to human-driven climate change, experts say.
Average temperatures in Indiana have increased between 1.5 and 2 degrees Fahrenheit in the last century. If greenhouse gas emissions continue on the same trajectory, local temperatures could rise as much as 10 degrees by 2080, according to the National Climate Assessment Report, which evaluates the problem of global warming in the U.S.
Scientists say such a drastic change in climate would cause crops to wither. The state would also be forced to endure longer stretches without rain, forcing farmers to rely more heavily on irrigation, which eventually would strain the region’s water supply.
“This isn’t something that’s going to happen suddenly,” said Jeffrey Dukes, associate director of Purdue Climate Change Research Center. “But as we go forward over the next few decades, it’s going to happen more and more frequently.”
Weather has always been variable, and any given summer day may be really hot or relatively mild.
But global warming increases the chance that more summer days will be decidedly hot. Scientists often refer to climate change as loading the dice, making it more likely that weather will be more extreme.
The report, which was released last month, suggests summers will be warmer, winters will be colder, and the driest regions in the U.S. are likely to become even drier. Not all climate models give a consistent answer on precipitation projections. Experts, though, agree that there will be heavier downpours, meaning flash floods like the one in Ferdinand will become more common.
Hotter temperatures will also put more stress on crops and livestock and cause insects to live longer into the winter. This means farmers will have to spray more pesticide to keep insects from chewing into their corn and soybeans, said Ken Eck, Dubois County’s Purdue University extension educator for agriculture and natural resources.
Some extreme weather may happen regardless of global warming, but those events would be less likely to occur had the climate not begun to change, Dukes said.
“Climate change is changing our reality already,” Dukes said, “but attributing any one event to it is very difficult.”
The changes in Indiana haven’t been quite as drastic as in other parts of the world, said Tom Reaugh, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Louisville. Warming has been much more intense at the North and South poles, where large ice sheets have begun to melt.
If polar temperatures continue to climb, scientists warn that melting glaciers could cause the ocean to rise several feet in the coming centuries. If that were to happen, coastal cities across the globe would be washed away.
Climate change is driven by humans releasing heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, scientists say. For years, efforts in Washington to curb emissions have stalled, largely because of political wrangling. But last week, the Obama administration unveiled plans to cut carbon dioxide emissions 30 percent by 2030.
Each state must meet a customized target set by the Environmental Protection Agency. Indiana’s power plants will reduce emissions by 20 percent.
This in itself won’t solve the problem of global warming. Some scientists say emissions need to fall at least 80 percent by 2050 if climate change is to be kept in check. But Dukes believes it’s the first step in tackling the issue.
“We have to find some way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions if we’re going to deal with climate change,” he said.
Critics say the president’s plan will cause electricity bills to soar, but others project a modest rise of about 6 percent in electric costs. A recent report from the Business Forward Foundation found that Indiana manufacturers stand to lose more from costly disruptions tied to climate change than from implementing the new EPA standards.
When severe weather closes bridges, slows shipping or floods factories, it results in days, sometimes weeks, of lost productivity for manufacturers. The state’s auto industry, which employs more than 500,000 workers, loses roughly $1.25 million an hour when manufacturing plants are shut down because of severe weather, said Jim Doyle, the report’s author.
“By comparison, the cost of these standards is minute,” he said, noting that the new EPA limits will cost automakers about $7 more for each vehicle they produce.
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