The forecast for the Bloomington economy next year is "generally encouraging, but not particularly robust," which is pretty much in line with predictions for the nation, the state and the stock market presented by Indiana University business faculty at the annual Business Outlook Panel Thursday.
Jerry Conover, director of the Indiana Business Research Center at IU's Kelley School of Business, offered a lukewarm view of the local economic position and prospects.
He said economic rankings put Bloomington in the same league as cities such as Terre Haute; Sheboygan, Wisconsin; Benton Harbor, Michigan; and Farmington, New Mexico. He said those aren't cities Bloomington usually likes to compare itself to.
He pointed to the strengthening housing market as a shining light, with closed sales up 15 percent from a year ago and prices up by 4 percent. He said residential building permits last year were at the highest level since 2007.
Conover said government jobs now form the largest sector of the economy, with manufacturing at No. 2 but falling. He said the finance, insurance and real estate sector — referred to as FIRE — is starting to grow again, as signaled by the stronger housing market.
But he sees growth in jobs and in personal income in 2016.
"Though it's not stellar, it could be a lot worse," he said of the local economy.
Similar beliefs were voiced about the other areas the speakers addressed.
Timothy Slaper, director of economic analysis at the Kelley School, says he sees Indiana performing a shade better than the national forecast. He pointed to strong sales in the automobile sector and a strong performance by Indiana exports compared to surrounding states as key reasons.
He also pointed to trouble ahead for states he's calling the "Dirty Two Dozen," which includes Indiana. These are the states suing the EPA over stricter air pollution standards generally believed to target coal use and production. He said though Indiana is shifting away from using coal and replacing it with natural gas, the state's reliance is still intense and utility costs are rising.
"Unless you're Amish, the clean power plan should keep you up at night, but with the lights off, the power off and the temperature set to low," he said.
He said he doesn't see renewable resources having enough strength to handle the state's manufacturing needs, and said consumers will have to pay the bill for rebuilding the energy infrastructure to be driven by natural gas instead of coal.