Supply and demand for hogs are about in line with each other this year, according to a Purdue University analyst.
That’s expected to result in modest profits for pork producers this year as herd sizes shrink slightly and production costs fall, Purdue agricultural economist Chris Hurt said in a press release.
Hurt analyzed this month’s hogs and pigs report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The report stated the nation’s hog herds had about 68 million head, up a little compared to last March but down 1 percent from Dec. 1, 2015.
Indiana’s hog herds had grown by 1 percent year-over-year in December 2015, according to the USDA’s hog and pigs report for Indiana. March data for the state level was not yet available as of press time.
The USDA’s report indicated producers nationwide intended to reduce farrowing sows by 1 percent this spring and another 3 percent in the summer. If that actually comes to pass, Hurt said, pork supplies will shrink compared to previous expectations and would boost prices.
He predicted live hog prices would range from $49 to $54 per hundredweight in 2016. That’s up about a dollar compared to last year.
Average production costs are expected to drop to about $50 per hundredweight, Hurt said, yielding an estimated average profit of $6 per head for 2016 as a whole compared to a loss of about $3 per head last year.
Cass County has 39 hog and pig farms according to the most recent U.S. Census of Agriculture data. Carroll County is the state’s largest pork producing county, with 69 farms raising more than 255,000 head. White County is also among the most productive, with about 199,000 hogs and pigs, according to census data.