The Pokagon Band of Potawatomi Indians' plan to bring a Four Winds Casino and Hotel to South Bend could include a casino larger than Horseshoe in Hammond and a hotel with more rooms than Blue Chip's tower in Michigan City.
That plan, which describes the largest development the Pokagon Band might pursue, is part of a draft Environmental Impact Statement issued by the federal Bureau of Indian Affairs earlier this month.
For Indiana's existing commercial casinos, it would be a "game-changer" that would have a "significant impact on all (casino) properties in the state," according to an industry analyst.
The plan is now in a public comment period, which includes a public hearing April 14 in South Bend.
"This is an important first step in a lengthy process that began over two years ago," Pokagon Band Chairman John P. Warren said in a written statement. "We are very pleased to have reached this significant milestone."
The tribe already operates three casinos in Michigan. The first, and largest, is in New Buffalo and includes a hotel and entertainment venue. Two satellite casinos are in Dowagiac and Hartford.
Existing casino owners are wary of the new South Bend project.
Northwest Indiana's casinos -- Blue Chip, Majestic Star, Ameristar and Horsehoe -- have seen gaming revenue decline about 14 percent during the last five fiscal years, dropping to $1.02 billion from $1.18 billion, according to figures from the Indiana Gaming Commission.
Statewide, casino revenue is down about 17 percent, dropping to $2.30 billion from about $2.78 billion, over the same period.
"A new casino in South Bend would add capacity to an already saturated market," said David Strow, the Las Vegas-based corporate communications director for Blue Chip parent Boyd Gaming Corp.
A study by Spectrum Gaming Group for the Casino Association of Indiana, of which Horseshoe and Ameristar casinos are members, suggested the new casino would "significantly affect the investment climate and the competitive landscape."
Because Four Winds Casino would be on land-in-trust controlled by a Native American tribe, it would not be subject to the same tax and regulatory system as other casinos in Indiana.
"This is a game-changer even if it were competing on the same playing field," said Ed Feigenbaum, editor of the Indiana Gaming Insight newsletter. But "there's not a level playing field."
"The tribal casino in Michigan shares 6 percent of slot revenue with the state and 2 percent with the local community — and nothing from table game revenues," Strow said of non-Indian casinos. "We pay a very high gaming tax revenue, as well as taxes on admissions and free play."
According to the Indiana Gaming Commission, about 30 percent of Northwest Indiana casinos' gaming revenue went to pay the wagering and admissions taxes in fiscal 2014.
Exactly how much money a South Bend casino would contribute to Indiana governments would be determined through a compact between Indiana and the tribe, something required by the federal law allowing casino-style gambling on tribal lands.
States are required to negotiate "in good faith," and compacts must be approved by the federal Bureau of Indian Affairs.
Plan includes 3,000 slot machines, 500-room hotel
"This will be an extremely frustrating process for Gov. (Mike) Pence," Feigenbaum predicted. Pence is opposed to gambling expansion, is a promoter of states' rights, and would have to address tax revenue declines a new casino would cause, Feigenbaum said.
The Pokagon Band's preferred location for the tribal village and casino is a 166-acre site at Ind. 23 and U.S. 31 in South Bend.
The development could include as many as 24 single-family homes, four duplexes, three four-unit apartments and a community center.
The casino, along with restaurants, meeting and banquet facilities, offices and support areas, would cover 216,061 square feet, as described in the plan. The hotel would have 500 rooms and stand 18 stories tall.
The plan suggests there would be as many as 3,000 slot machines at a Four Winds South Bend. Horseshoe has the most in Indiana at 2,859. The plan does not reveal the number of table-games.
The development would cost about $480 million, the plan estimates, and create 1,400 construction jobs and 2,000 permanent jobs.
"They can put together a first-class facility with tremendous amenities," Feigenbaum said.
A Pokagon Band spokeswoman noted the plan describes the maximum extent of the South Bend-area project, "not necessarily what the Pokagon Band will develop."
The plan includes an alternate site of 173 acres at Ind. 26 and Ind. 19 in Elkhart. That alternative proposes essentially the same development as for the South Bend site.
The draft EIS also considers the possibility of developing the South Bend site without a casino, and addresses the possibility of no development at all.
"Although we were required to state all foreseeable development for the proposed Trust Land, the Pokagon Band will pursue development that will best serve our citizens and the larger community," Warren said.
The process for developing tribal trust lands, administered by the Bureau of Indian Affairs, gives a tribe significant freedom "to facilitate tribal self-determination, economic development or Indian housing," according to federal code.
The title to the land is held by the federal government in trust for the benefit of the tribe. It is the same process the Pokagon Band went through for its other casinos in Michigan, as well as housing and other features of the tribal villages.
Blue Chip's Strow said it's too early to speculate on the extent of a new Four Winds Casino's impact on the marketplace, but he said Blue Chip will continue to market itself as a "regional entertainment destination" while arguing for "a more level playing field with our competition."