Rural northeast Indiana counties' populations stay mostly stagnant

The population in Noble, DeKalb and Steuben counties is stagnant, according to new U.S. Census Bureau estimates recently released. Since 2010, the last census count, the population in each of the three counties has grown by less than half of a percentage point.

LaGrange County’s population has grown about 3.5 percent since 2010, but a high birth rate among Amish residents factors heavily into the increase, a state demographer said.

Statewide, Indiana’s population has grown 1.74 percent, ranking 33rd out of all states and Washington, D.C. That continued more than a decade of lackluster growth, although Indiana once again outpaced population gains in neighboring Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky.

Urban areas are quickly growing, while rural areas are seeing flat population trends because younger generations are more frequently moving toward large cities, Indiana Business Research Center demographer Matt Kinghorn said. Those younger residents then start families in their 20s or 30s, boosting the natural population growth in areas such as Indianapolis, Fort Wayne and South Bend.

Rural counties aren’t seeing growth because young people are moving away to go to college or seek work, and then don’t come back, Kinghorn said. With the exodus of young people and attrition from elderly residents dying, many rural areas aren’t growing, and about a dozen are actually experiencing population loss, he said.

“It’s really getting to the point that outside of a few cases, growth in Indiana is really concentrated in a few metropolitan areas. Midsize or rural areas are really flat,” Kinghorn said.

People are more mobile today, and technology makes it easier to stay in touch with family or friends, which is one factor allowing millennials to move farther from home. But younger people are also leaving for entertainment or quality-of-life aspects they might not find in a smaller community, Kinghorn said.

Jobs are also a major driving force, and urban areas typically have more options for a college graduate or young working adult to find work, Kinghorn said. The Indianapolis metro area has some of the fastest-growing communities because the city is the main economic engine in the state, he said.

“Areas that have a more diversified economy, more opportunities are going to increasingly draw young adults and people who are raising young families. Young adults leave areas, and when there are no other young people moving in to take their place, you see that flat population growth,” Kinghorn said.

Increasing business opportunities and promoting quality of life are not new challenges, Noble County Economic Development Corp. Executive Director Rick Sherck said.

Younger people are having fewer children and waiting longer to have them, which depresses the growth rate, Sherck said. But Noble County, just like other rural communities, does suffer from losing young talent to metro areas. People who grew up in Noble County may go off to college, but then they’re not coming back into the community, he said.

That’s the same problem LaGrange County is facing, county Commissioner Jac Price said. Price expects the 3.5 percent growth is almost exclusively from the Amish population, since younger residents are often leaving to attend college or seek jobs in Fort Wayne, Elkhart or South Bend, and never come back.

Sherck is hopeful that the new Regional Cities Initiative will highlight the positives of Noble County and help improve growth in the future. Many people are going to head to Fort Wayne for entertainment or work, but Noble County has to market its strengths, including outdoor recreation opportunities, small towns, and unique businesses such as wineries and restaurants.

“If we can create an environment that even though it’s not in your community, it’s close by — ‘You can get there from here.’ That’s a slogan from the (Northeast Indiana) Regional Partnership. You’re going to see new growth,” Sherck said.

Improving the connection between local schools and businesses can also help stanch the population bleeding out to other areas, Price said. Modern manufacturing isn’t the dirty, grimy labor like it was decades ago, and Price thinks if schools can partner with industries for more internships or training programs, it could encourage them to stay home and take jobs at a local employer, he said.

Noble County could also benefit in the future from the growth Fort Wayne is experiencing. Fort Wayne grew more quickly in the last two years than it had at any time in the 10 years prior, Kinghorn said. As the city grows, it will naturally sprawl outward, and eventually residents will be pushed out into surrounding areas.

Around Indianapolis, for example, some of the fastest-growing communities are Fishers, Bargersville and Avon.

As the population in and around Fort Wayne pushes outward, Noble County can begin to attract more residents who may want to move away from congestion or seek out smaller schools for their children. Younger people are looking to get outdoors, find biking and walking trails, or grab dinner on an outdoor patio at an eclectic, local restaurant, Sherck said.

Suburban growth could benefit Noble County in the future, but that growth is likely never going to help LaGrange, Price said. LaGrange County is too far away for many people to commute an hour or more for jobs in South Bend or Fort Wayne.

“When you cross the county line into Wolcottville … any of the LaGrange County communities are too far away,” Price said.

In DeKalb County, DeKalb Economic Development Partnership Executive Director Ken McCrory attributes the population stagnation to the economic downturn in 2008. By the time the recession really hit the county in 2009 and 2010, unemployment was high and the workforce was shrinking.

Now that the recession has passed, though, the area is slowly recovering. McCrory, who has previous experience with population projections, said looking at such a small window of time isn’t as telling as broader, decade-spanning trends. He said there has been growth in the county since 2010, but it’s been slow.

“I would expect a jump in the next few years,” he said. “I would like to see what happens.”

Right now, the county’s unemployment rate is very low, and the rate of migration in and out of the county is almost equal, McCrory said. Over the next decade, he estimated the county would see a growth rate between 2 percent and 8 percent. He guessed it probably would be closer to 8 percent.

“We’re going to see growth, I’m pretty confident of that,” McCrory said.

Though a growth rate in that ballpark would be a start, it still might not be enough, he said. Another U.S. Census Bureau projection said DeKalb County’s workforce would lose more than 11,000 people by 2025 if the current rate of growth continues, McCrory said. And since millennials have become the largest group in the workforce, it’s important to think about how to attract and retain them.

“The millennial generation is extremely important to us,” McCrory said. “They’re absolutely critical.”

DeKalb County should attract young people because of its transportation benefits, including Interstate 69 access and the DeKalb County Airport, McCrory said. Combining that with the county’s proximity to Fort Wayne, it has a lot of living and working opportunities to offer young people, he said.

McCrory said the impact of the Regional Cities Initiative would be big for DeKalb County. Since Kosciusko County joined northeast Indiana’s bid, the 11-county application will be the biggest in the state, he said. If northeast Indiana were to win, the $42 million over two years would help change the way the region thinks about growth.

“The Regional Cities Initiative is important so we don’t continue with the ‘same old, same old,’” McCrory said. “We need to be at the front edge right now.”

Reporter Jacob Klopfenstein contributed to this story.