Kokomo experienced a slight bump in population growth from 2016 to 2017, the city's first increase unrelated to annexation in recent years, according to estimates from the United States Census Bureau.
The figures, compiled by the Census Bureau as part of its annual collection of city and county estimates, display a modest increase that local officials say bucks a predicted downward trend and is attributable to quality-of-life and economic development initiatives.
But experts still predict a significant population decline for Howard County in coming decades, despite its ability to so far fight off major losses.
Specifically, Census Bureau figures show an increase of 179 residents in Kokomo from July 1, 2016, to July 1, 2017. That's a jump from 57,657 people within city limits to 57,836.
In 2010, in what was pre-annexation Kokomo, the city's population was 45,468. But after two annexations took effect at the start of 2012 – and after another annexation of 1,267 residents at the start of 2014 in the now-southeast part of the city – the Census Bureau's "base estimate" jumped to 58,061.
That base estimate, reflective of annexation changes, shows a downward trend in recent years – until the 2017 figures.
The city's population total could again jump around New Year's, as residents in the north half of Darrough Chapel, part of an unincorporated hole on the city's east side, are deep in the midst of a voluntary annexation.
The 22-acre area set to be annexed – bounded by Arnold Street on the north, Goyer Road on the west, Markland Avenue to the south and Lewis Street to the east – includes 58 households and an estimated population of 135, according to the annexation’s fiscal plan.
The annexation, without unforeseen roadblocks, would likely be established in late December.
"This is a small indicator that what we are doing is working," said Kokomo Mayor Greg Goodnight about the recent Census Bureau figures. "Kokomo is a place where people want to work and live. Even though this is a modest increase, these census numbers separate us from many peer cities that are losing population.
"We are seeing a clear trend developing that is repeated all across the state and Midwest," he added. "Cities, like Kokomo, who are investing in quality of life and talent attraction, are growing while others are slowly declining."
In comparison, Howard County's estimated population on July 1, 2017, was 82,363, ranked 18th in the state and an increase of 24 residents from the previous year.
Greentown, according to the Census Bureau, had 2,369 residents in 2017, dropping 16 people from 2016. Russiaville tallied 1,094 residents, a repeat of its 2016 total.
During the same time period, Miami County lost 222 residents (36,067 to 35,845) and Tipton County lost 26 residents (15,154 to 15,128).
Population figures for Howard County as a whole have stayed largely stagnant in recent years, though they have dipped slightly since the 2010 census. And researchers at the state level expect to see a significant decrease in coming years.
A projection by STATS Indiana, developed by the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, shows that Howard County is expected to lose around 10 percent of its population by 2050, dropping to a total just under 74,300.
“Like a lot of areas around the state, Howard County is expected to lose some population over the next couple of decades due to both a net out-migration of residents and a natural decrease of the population, meaning that the number of deaths in the county each year will exceed the number of births,” explained Matt Kinghorn, a senior demographic analyst with the Indiana Business Research Center and IU business school.
“Natural decrease will likely become very common in Indiana communities as the population ages. Our projections suggest that 71 of the state’s 92 counties could have a natural decrease of the population by 2050.”
Howard County Commissioner Paul Wyman, however, has dismissed long-term population forecasts.
During his State of the County address last month he cited projections from 2010 that he said showed the county would lose more than 1,500 people – "some shockingly big number over a five- or six-year period."
“Folks, we’ve been bucking that trend," said Wyman during the annual speech.
Wyman said Howard County’s ability to so far avoid dramatic population loss comes from economic development and business growth, citing recent expansions by tech companies like AndyMark and Green Cubes Technology and developments like Kokomo Municipal Stadium.
Multiple home-building projects in Kokomo have also been given government approvals this year, including one project that will eventually bring 220 homes to the Webster Crossing neighborhood and another that's expected to usher in roughly 70 homes to the city's south side, north of the Wildcat Creek Golf Course.