Morton J. Marcus is an economist formerly with the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. His column appears in Indiana newspapers. His column appears in Indiana newspapers
Last week we looked at Indiana’s private sector job growth in contrast to that of the nation. Now we’ll see where that job growth occurred. And the answer is, overwhelmingly…..the Indianapolis metropolitan area.
Between 2007 and 2017, the 11 county Indianapolis metro (from Putnam County on the west and Brown County on the south to Madison County on the northeast) added 100,700 of the 120,000 private sector jobs gained statewide.
Six other metros gained a total of 31,200 jobs; a different six metros lost 12,900 jobs. Of the gaining metros, Elkhart led with 8,700 added jobs. Of the losing metros, Michigan City trailed with a decline of 4,600 jobs.
To give this some perspective, in each individual year, 2011 through 2017, the Indianapolis metro alone gained more jobs than the combined losses of the six losing metros over the entire 2011-17 period.
The year 2007 would turn out to be the peak for private sector jobs in those six job-losing metros - - Bloomington, Gary, Michigan City, Muncie, South Bend, and Terre Haute.
During the worst stretch of the Great Recession, between 2008 and ’09, Indiana lost 169,000 jobs (6.7 percent). Together, the state’s 13 metros experienced a decline of 6.4 percent. Nationally, the number of private sector jobs dropped by 5.2 percent.
In 2009, Elkhart’s metro lost 20,000 jobs or 18.8 percent, while Kokomo was down by 13.7 percent or 4,500 jobs. In that single year, the Indianapolis metro saw over 50,000 jobs lost, one of the smaller percent declines at 5.0 percent. Bloomington had the least negative experience that year with a 2.5 percent loss of private sector jobs.
On the borders of Indiana are three major metro areas (Chicago, Louisville and Cincinnati) with nearly five million jobs, many held by Hoosier residents. Those three metros added 260,000 private sector jobs between 2007 and 2017. That’s an impressive number, until we recognize it’s an average of just 26,000 per year on a base of 4.6 million jobs.
The Louisville metro (which includes five Indiana counties) was the fastest growing of these border metros with a one percent average increase over the decade. Three Indiana metros exceed that level of growth (Columbus (1.6 percent), Indianapolis (1.2 percent) and Lafayette (1.1 percent).
There is nothing sacred about 2007. We shouldn’t set a return to the number of private jobs in 2007 as an employment goal. There are demographic and technological forces reducing jobs and many persons are needed to care for the young and old among us. In addition, having a job is not sufficient. How well that job pays is important to the worker, the family, the business community and the local government.
We’ll look at earnings in Indiana’s metro areas next week.