When a record number of black voters turned out for the presidential election in 2008, many people assumed it was because one of the candidates, Barack Obama, was black. That may have played a role, but new research from Indiana University shows a candidate’s race doesn’t necessarily mobilize minority voters.
Bernard Fraga, assistant professor of political science, found whether minorities make up the majority of voters in a district, and a candidate’s ability to successfully mobilize those minority voters, are better indicators of whether they will turn out for an election than the race of a candidate.
The findings of Fraga’s study were published online in February in the American Journal of Political Science and will be published in print this fall.
The article, “Candidates or Districts? Re-evaluating the Role of Race in Voter Turnout,” is the result of examining every congressional election in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Fraga said about 3,000 individuals sought office either in primary or general elections in that time.
Fraga chose to focus on congressional instead of presidential elections for several reasons, but a big part of the decision was salience. The thinking is that with less money spent on campaigns, less media attention and less knowledge of the issues specific to that race, other factors might weigh more heavily on voters’ minds.
“People are not going to pay as much attention, and they may focus more on race,” Fraga said.
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