Most people maintain a love-hate relationship with rules.
We admire rules that promote responsible behavior and orderliness, by other people. But when rules inhibit our free-spirited wild side, we break them with a wink and a grin. Consider the spitball pitcher in baseball: To fans of the opposing team, he's an affront to the integrity of the game; to his own team's faithful, he's a sly fox.
Rules also play a role in the selection of a president. This summer's Republican National Convention at Cleveland could shine a spotlight on political rules — yes, those do exist — like never before. Why? Thank the number 1,237. That's the amount of delegates a candidate needs to secure the Grand Old Party's nomination for president at the convention, which runs July 18-21. Unlike other presidential races in recent memory, no Republican is likely to have amassed 1,237 delegates once the primaries and caucuses end June 7, including front-runner Donald Trump.
Thus, the first ballot at the convention — a formality in most years — could this time be just the start of a dramatic, historic week.
What could happen? Keep an eye on the rules.
Jim Bopp knows those guidelines well. The Terre Haute native, who maintains a law office at Sixth and Wabash, serves as special counsel to the Republican National Committee and counsel to the RNC rules committee. "So I'm deeply involved in this process," Bopp said last week.
Rules to govern the upcoming convention are already in place, he explained, but those could — could — change. For now, this year's convention rules are those adopted for 2016, on a temporary basis, at the 2012 convention. They can be amended four different times before the convention, as they pass from the RNC Standing Committee on Rules to the 168-member RNC itself, then to the convention rules committee on the opening day at Cleveland, and finally to the delegates on the convention floor.
Based on the current rules, more than 90 percent of the 2,472 convention delegates will be bound to vote based on the results of their home state's primary or caucus results on the first ballot. It appears that Trump will go into the convention with more delegates than rivals Ted Cruz or John Kasich, but shy of the required 1,237 total. That would result in a "contested" convention, a probable prospect, Bopp said.
"I think it's highly likely. I think it's 80 to 90 percent [likely]," he said. "I don't think there's any realistic scenario where somebody is going to get a majority of the bound delegates and become the presumptive nominee before the convention."
Only 16 states have not yet conducted primaries or caucuses to let voters choose a preferred Republican presidential nominee. New Yorkers get their chance Tuesday. The Indiana primary is May 3. So far, Trump has won 743 delegates compared to 545 for Cruz, 143 for Kasich, and 187 for candidates who've since dropped out of the race.
Some unbound delegates will be available when the convention starts. But even if the uncommitted delegates and those released by the dropout candidates decide to back Trump, he could still fall short of 1,237 on the first ballot. That would force a second ballot, when only half the delegates would still be pledged to a specific candidate.
The last time a second ballot was needed at a major party's national convention was 1952.
The situation has fueled unending speculation. Much of it centers around the expectation that uneasy delegates will abandon Trump after their required first-ballot votes. Bopp addressed some prevalent "what-ifs" last week.
• Kasich, the Ohio governor, envisions a majority of delegates choosing him, after multiple ballots. A Kasich-supporting political action committee cites the Morning Consult poll that shows him as the only Republican who could defeat likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the November general election. The "stop Trump" push has gained momentum among party backers, fearful that the distaste for the brash real estate developer among numerous groups of Americans would make him unelectable. So, what if delegates decide to back Kasich on the second ballot, once they're no longer bound to vote for Trump?
Unless the convention rules change, Kasich can't be the nominee. Under the temporary 2016 rules now in place, only candidates who have won eight state primaries or caucuses can be nominated. Kasich's only win, so far, came in his home state of Ohio, and he's trailing in early polls in upcoming states. So, "if we have the same rules, he cannot be nominated," Bopp said.
In fact, that rule boils the choice down to Trump, who already has eight victories, or Cruz, who could reach eight victories soon.
Some Republicans, fearful that Trump or Cruz would lose to Clinton in the fall, have suggested an undeclared candidate, such as Speaker of the House Paul Ryan or former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, be chosen as the Republican nominee, instead. (Both Ryan and Daniels insist they'll not accept nomination.)
Such an alternative candidate would lack the needed eight state victories. Thus, “it cannot happen under the current rules,” Bopp said.
• What if the RNC rules committee, the RNC itself, the convention rules committee or the 2,472 delegates gathered inside Quicken Loans Arena at Cleveland in July decide to scrap the eight-state-wins rule? One "gadfly," as Bopp put it, on the RNC Standing Committee on Rules suggested allowing any candidate who has won at least one delegate to be eligible for nomination. That would open the nomination to Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul.
Again, the final call on amending that rule, or others, goes to the delegates themselves. “They take a majority vote to adopt the rules, and they can amend them, as well,” Bopp said.
• What if the delegates want to momentarily suspend an existing rule, such as the one requiring a nominee to have eight primary victories?
“If that rule was suspended, [a move that requires the support of two-thirds of the delegates], that would mean that the nominations would be open and that anybody could be nominated,” Bopp said.
A suspension of such rules could happen after balloting has begun, too. “Let's say Trump and Cruz are [initially] nominated; we go four or five ballots and nobody gets a majority; somebody moves to suspend the rules that require the eight states; then anybody could be nominated,” Bopp said.
• What if the candidates themselves want to change the rules?
“They will have supporters, some who have gotten elected to the rules committee, and of course they'll be lobbying the rules committee,” Bopp said. “That process is already starting.” Regardless, the last say on rules goes to the delegates.
Rules could change, somewhat, in Cleveland, but Bopp offered a word of caution. “I don't want to overstate the prospect of changing the rules,” he said. “Rules changes are fairly rare.”
• What if Trump goes into the convention with more delegates than anyone else, as expected, but a different person winds up becoming the actual Republican nominee after multiple ballots? Would riots break out, as Trump has claimed?
“He's not accurate,” Bopp said, regarding Trump's prediction. “I think everybody accepts the idea that it's appropriate that we require — as we've done since 1856 — that in order to be nominated, you have to get the votes of a majority of the delegates.
“If [Trump] goes into the convention with a majority, I think he'll definitely be nominated,” Bopp added. “I know there are some people that are suggesting [rules] changes that would try to deny him the nomination, but I think it would be outlandish and wrong to do that.
“But if he just gets a plurality, well, he's short,” Bopp concluded. “He's not entitled to the nomination with a plurality on the first ballot. I don't think that rule will be changed to permit a plurality winner. And you just have to live with those consequences.”