Morton J. Marcus is an economist formerly with the Kelley School of Business, Indiana University. His column appears in numerous Indiana newspapers.
Just when you thought you had enough of statistics, let me introduce you to JOLTS. No, this is not something about the NFL Colts. JOLTS are a series of data produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
As of the last working day in May this year, the private sector in the United States had 3.2 million job openings. I’m ignoring the public sector because the hirings and firings of government workers, particularly at the state and local levels, are being driving by politics rather than economics in these contentious days.
Those 3.2 million private job openings are 400,000 more than a year earlier and the second highest level (seasonally adjusted) since July 2008. We now stand 1.3 million above the recession low in July 2009. (These figures are not available for Indiana or any single state).
With so many jobs available, how come we still have such high unemployment? The answers are many: the jobs may require skills that the unemployed don’t have; the jobs may be located in places the unemployed do not live; the jobs may not pay enough to attract workers; the jobs may be without benefits; the jobs may be short-term or undesirable career moves.
During the month of May 2012, private firms in the U.S. hired or reemployed 4.1 million workers or 500,000 more than in May 2011. This is the second largest number of workers hired in 43 months.
Thus we see a sizeable number of jobs available and a significant number of workers being hired at a time that the naturally nervous, the politically pessimistic and the defiantly depressed insist the economy is failing once again.
One of the best figures is the number of workers quitting their jobs. If times were bad folks would hold onto whatever they have. Quits are worker-initiated separations and represent the willingness and/or capacity of workers to leave jobs.
For each of the past three months, about 2 million workers quit their jobs. That number now exceeds the number laid off or dismissed. This past May, 1.7 million workers were laid off or discharged, about the same number as a year ago and 800,000 below the recession peak in January 2009.
There is little we can tell about the economy from the classification, “Other separations”, which includes retirement, death, and disability. This number appears to be at a peak not seen since late 2007, but I would not wish to speculate on the reason for that peak. Retirements may be forced or induced and as such are not necessarily voluntary. Death and disability are not normally voluntary forms of separation from a job.
Together these data paint a picture of a slowly improving job market. Of course slow improvement will never satisfy those who spent their youths asking “Are we there yet?” Nor will those who choose to rewrite history accept reality.