When the end comes, probably sometime in March, the Republicans in the Indiana Legislature will have their way on right-to-work legislation -- or any other legislation they choose -- and Democrats will not be able to stop them. That is unless they intend to boycott for the entire session, and that could get expensive.
Indiana House Democrats can stall, as the did this past week, and refuse to report to the House floor for the conduct of business. They can, for now, delay Republicans from moving forward on legislation that would give workers the freedom to work without joining a union or paying union dues, but ultimately, when the numbers are counted, the Democrats won't be able to stop right to work, if enough Republicans remain unified.
Those numbers were decided back in November 2010 by Indiana voters who overwhelmingly gave Republicans control of both houses of the Indiana legislature. As a result of that election, Republicans hold a 60-40 majority in the House, but they need 67 lawmakers to be present in order to conduct business. That means seven House Democrats are required on the floor for the Indiana House to consider any legislation.
Over in the Indiana Senate, Republicans hold such a huge majority, 37-13, that it would do not good for Demo senators to boycott. Senate Republicans have enough seats to go ahead and conduct business without any of those 13 Democrats. In fact, the Senate Labor Committee on Friday passed right to work.
The only leverage the Democrats have this session -- as with the last -- is with those seven seats. House Democrats used their leverage at the start of the session this past week to prevent Republicans from getting started.
Of course, as we said, it could be a costly strategy. After House Democrats skipped out for five weeks last year and ran off to Urbana, Ill., the Republicans passed an "anti-bolting" law which allows a $1,000-per-day fine against boycotting lawmakers. If Republican House Speaker Brian Bosma begins levying the fines, it could prove personally painful to Democrats, unless they have monied supporters willing to pay the fine and keep the boycott going.
The Democrats have strong union support in their effort to derail right-to-work legislation. Clearly the unions see right-to-work as a threat to their very existence. Meanwhile, Republicans, who have the support of the Chamber of Commerce and business interests, believe right to work would give an economic boost to Indiana, making it more attractive to business and industry looking to expand.
Much that went on in Indianapolis this past week made for high political theatrics, as will any public hearings on right to work that the Democrats hold in the coming days. And yet, reality tells us that at some point, the Democrats will return to work. The alternative would be to face voters in November and explain why they didn't go to work. These would be the same voters who gave Republicans that big majority two years ago. And, there are those potentially big fines.
It is a heck of a gamble that the House Democrats are making, one that most of us could not afford.